As sub-Saharan African economies struggle to recover from the 2020 recession induced by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the region now faces new economic challenges exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The latest edition of the World Bank's Africa's Pulse report, a semi-annual analysis of the region's short-term macroeconomic outlook, forecasts growth of 3.6 percent for 2022, down from 4 percent in 2021. This slowdown comes against a regional backdrop of persistent new variants of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), global inflation, supply chain disruptions, and climate shocks. The rise in global commodity prices, which has accelerated since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, adds to the region's other economic challenges.
As the world's largest food exporters, Russia - also the world's largest fertilizer exporter - and Ukraine account for a significant share of wheat, corn and seed oil imports. These could be interrupted if the conflict continues.
For Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa, the three largest regional economies - South Africa is expected to see its growth level decline by 2.8 percentage points in 2022, slowed by persistent structural constraints. Angola and Nigeria are expected to continue their 2022 growth trajectory, improving by 2.7 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. This is partly due to high oil prices and strong non-oil sector performance. Resource-rich countries, especially in the extractive sector, will see better economic performance due to the war in Ukraine. In contrast, countries without abundant natural resources will experience a slowdown in economic activity.
In West and Central Africa, growth is expected to be 4.2 percent in 2022 and 4.6 percent in 2023. Excluding Nigeria, the subregion is estimated to grow by 4.8 percent in 2022 and 5.6 percent in 2023. The growth trend for Cameroon, whose economy is relatively diversified, shows solid performance over time, reaching 4.4 percent in 2024. In Ghana, the economy is expected to grow at an accelerated pace in 2022, reaching 5.5 percent, before gradually slowing to 5 percent in 2024, still down from 7 percent pre-pandemic growth.
The report also emphasizes the importance of expanding social protection programs beyond safety nets to include health and education.
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