Somalia's prime minister and president engaged in a new showdown on Thursday that threatens to raise tensions in the country, which has been awaiting a presidential election for more than a year and is experiencing renewed activity by radical Islamists, Al Shabab.
The rivalry between the two politicians had already threatened the country's fragile political and security balance on several occasions last year. The office of Prime Minister Mohamed Roble announced that the representative of the African Union (AU) in Somalia, Francisco Madeira, was "persona non grata for having engaged in acts incompatible with his status", ordering him to leave the country within 48 hours.
He did not explain the decision against the Mozambican diplomat, who has been the AU Commission's special representative in Somalia since 2015. Within hours, President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, known as Farmajo, announced in a statement that he was "invalidating" and that he performed "illegal activity that threatens our relations with the international community".
"Farmajo is the custodian and guarantor of the country's sovereignty," the presidency said, indicating that it was instructing the foreign minister "to convey the Federal Government's apology to the AU for the illegitimate and reckless decision of an unauthorized department" to do so.
This public tug-of-war at the top of the executive follows previous ones in September and December - which saw the president suspend the powers of his prime minister - and raises fears that the country could tip into civil war.
This new standoff shows that the government is still deeply divided and the lack of consensus prevents progress on almost everything, including the elections. Under Somalia's complex electoral system, state assemblies and delegates from many clans and sub-clans choose legislators who appoint the president. Elections for the upper house were completed in late 2021. With 247 seats filled out of 275, the lower house election was 89.8% complete.
An early resolution of the dispute "will be difficult because there is almost no room for compromise on either side," says Omar Mahmood. The best case for a presidential election would be realistically by the middle of the year," he said.
The repeated postponements worry the international community, which believes they distract the authorities from other crucial issues for the country, such as the severe drought underway and the insurgency of the radical Islamist Al Shabab, who remain entrenched in rural areas. The organization escalated its attacks in the country, claiming responsibility for two spectacular attacks on 24 March. The extremists killed three people in an attack on the airport in Mogadishu, which was the country's most secure location. Afterward, they performed a double attack in the country's center that day, killing at least 48 people, including opposition MP Amina Mohamed Abdi.
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