The African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) ended on April 1, 2022. It was replaced by ATMIS – the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. The objectives of both undertakings are similar yet differ significantly in one aspect – cooperation with the Somalian government.
This, however, will not be easy. The exit of AU forces was long-awaited by some Somalian leaders – both governmental and Al-Shabab. Observers note that the two could be intertwined as Al-Shabab is said to have infiltrated the Somalian official structures on the administrative and legislative levels.
The president and prime minister of Somalia quarrel regularly with the political crisis reaching 2020 when the country failed to meet constitutional electoral times. Until now, the situation persists. This hurdles the fight against terrorism, weakened by lack of funding. According to Africa Portal, the state taxation is exceptionally ineffective and major stakeholders – EU, UK and US have long been against extending the mission.
At the same time, Al-Shabab can exploit the pause in the AU activity. According to the 2020 Hiraal Institute report, al-Shabab is "running a significant financial surplus, unlike the Somali government. The amount of money it collects increases yearly, while its operational costs remain fairly static. The jihadist group has numerous ways of making money. It receives the funds from other terrorist organizations, extorts funds from politicians and citizens and earns it through racketeering, piracy, and kidnapping for ransom.
Political fragility, terrorism threat, and general mayhem of the Horn of Africa did not discourage the African Union. The ATMIS plan consists of four steps. Firstly, it suggests adapting to the current situation in the country, then shaping operations of joint forces and finally handing the military bases in Somalia to its army. The last step is to withdraw ATMIS in trust that the Somalian government will handle the situation independently.
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