African gas to replace up 38% of Russian supplies in the EU

"Gas supplies from Africa could replace up to 38 percent of Russian gas supplies to the EU," estimate analysts at the Polish Economic Institute. "By 2040, African countries may produce as much as 470 billion cubic meters of gas annually."

The analysts pointed out the limited resources of the blue raw material are increasingly competed for by the EU countries - e.g., Spain and Italy (the second-largest importer of Russian gas in Europe) negotiate gas supplies from Algeria on their own. The experts reminded that in recent months the government of Mario Draghi has also signed agreements with Angola, Republic of Congo, and Egypt. A visit to Senegal by the German Chancellor is also planned for late May.

The analysts remind that the list of potential African suppliers considered by the European Commission includes: Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Nigeria, Republic of Congo and Senegal.

Supplies from Africa could contribute to both diversification using LNG (50 bcm) and transport by pipelines (10 bcm) such as Transmed, Medgaz and Greenstream, and the Trans-Saharan Nigal pipeline, scheduled in the future, expected to open in 2027. In 2021, 18.7% of the EU's gas imports came from the African continent.

"By 2040, African countries could produce up to 470 billion cubic meters of gas per year,". This would mean a doubling of current production, which, according to OPEC estimates, is about 235 billion cubic meters. Experts admitted that the actual availability of raw material is limited by long-term contracts, which bind its suppliers for years. "The current technical capacity of LNG terminals in Africa allows for the production of 71 million tons of LNG per year (92.3 billion cubic meters of gas)," - indicated, citing this year's report by the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers."Only 7 bcm of this pool is available off-the-shelf; an additional 29 bcm can be obtained by renegotiating short-term contracts.

Another problem is growing domestic demand - despite increased production between 2010 and 2020, exports were 17 percent lower due to increased local consumption and industry demand. "African countries will not sell off surplus production at the expense of their own energy, food (fertilizer production) and economic (petrochemical industry) security," - analysts assessed.